Book Review: Termination Shock by Neal Stephenson
Termination Shock is one of the best hard climate fiction stories written to date.
Termination Shock by Neal Stephenson is one of a handful of novels that is true, hard climate fiction, or cli-fi, as it’s come to be called. Most science fiction that incorporates climate change treats climate change as the setting or something to be survived, a stress on the characters, but it rarely is the focal aspect of the plot. Mad Max falls in this category, for example. You could replace the reason for the setting and the lack of water and all the hardships and still have a very similar story.
Termination Shock is one of the few full-length novels that weaves a story through a key dimension of climate change. In this case, the plot revolves around a fundamental question: Should humanity geoengineer a planet for human interests when they have fundamentally altered the planet away from its natural state through climate change? The question has been asked before in science fiction, but it is a very real and pressing question when thinking about climate change. It is hubris to think that we should take control of the global climate to avoid a calamity that we ourselves set in motion, but we could, and Termination Shock forces us to consider what it would mean if we did.
The premise of the story is that a Texas business magnate of the near future begins launching sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere with a giant cannon. Over time, this has a similar effect to a volcanic eruption, reflecting sunlight out into space, avoiding the greenhouse effect, and slowly cooling the planet. The story meticulously describes how geography, politics and technology factor into the Texan’s plan, taking up a significant part of the novel.
Throughout the novel, the science in this science fiction is solid. It’s one of the strongest elements of the story. If we nit-pick we can find minor details implausible or impractical, but as far as I noticed, all the explanations of the atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, climate models, and basic physics are right on target with what scientists understand. Specifically, the science behind the idea of simulating a volcanic eruption by introducing reflective particles into the atmosphere is very real and very plausible. It’s referred to as “solar geoengineering” or “global dimming.” Many scientists, futurists, technologists and prominent business leaders have presented it as one way to give humanity more time to address climate change. Stephenson has done his homework here and my own quick estimates match up with the mathematics he presents in the book of how something like the sulfur cannon could work.
The barriers to implementing a solar geoengineering project like this one are not fundamental, but are logistical, financial, and political. The book makes this accurately clear as well. The social, economic, and political tradeoffs are discussed in detail, and for me these were some of the most uncomfortable and thought-provoking parts of the story. Rich, predominantly white countries may be pushed to a breaking point where they face a choice. Their first option is to geoengineer the global climate maintain their comfort, property values, and agriculture. Option one could cause myriad climate-related problems and unintended consequences elsewhere in the world. Option two is doing nothing but aggressively cutting carbon emissions. That would compromise the rich countries own convenience and comfort, but would also avoid the potential for harm to other poorer countries. Knowing what we do about how these decisions usually go, the idea is haunting. What’s more, the examples presented in the book are straight out of scientific studies that have examined the implications of geoengineering. It all feels not just plausible and grounded, but terrifyingly probable, if not inevitable.
The story also dabbles in other more speculative science fiction. People sometimes cruise around in jetpack-like drones. Brain implants are used to help people recover from injuries and enhance abilities. Deep fake technology, obsession with social media and online perception, and our relationship with various devices and software are all included in the narrative and fit well in the setting Stephenson is created. None of the technology future predictions of science feel out-of-bounds, but they often made me groan out loud as if finding an unappealing reflection in the mirror.
The other major strong point of the book is the characters. Neal Stephenson is known for drawing readers in by starting a plotline under crazy circumstances, and you won’t be disappointed with this tale either. Along the way, you’ll get to intimately know the Queen of the Netherlands, a feral hog hunter, and an Indian-Canadian that decides to learn a traditional form of martial arts. Despite the zany character descriptions, these people feel as real as the citizens living in the mind of Stephen King. As they slowly build relationships with each other, you’ll be rooting for everyone, no matter how much you might simultaneously despise what they do.
The story also raises other timely issues. COVID plays into the story as a background stressor but never really alters the plotline. More noticeable to American readers used to hearing about American main characters is that the United States is barely a factor. In fact, the dysfunction of the U.S. government and the absurdity of what Americans put up with are major themes in the social ark of the plot. The U.S. is effectively irrelevant, a “joke,” a “clown show,” that “can’t be relied upon” and “can’t control itself.” The rise of Trump, QAnon, and the utter disconnection from reality of many Americans is used to explain, believably, how some key plot points unfold. For me, it revealed an unsettling truth. On the current path of growing science denial and authoritarianism, the U.S. may become irrelevant on the world stage long before the country fractures or collapses into any sort of dystopia. That future would allow for America’s enemies to thrive, and that’s something all Americans should spend time thinking about.
The book is imperfect, however, and had some dissatisfying weaknesses. At one dramatic moment in the novel, it felt like an inflection point had been reached, a transition to the following act. It felt like a very compelling political thriller story was waiting on the coming pages. Instead, the characters involved just sort of abandon that plotline, it goes unresolved, and it’s scarcely brought up again. In hindsight, it’s not even clear why that particular plot thread starts, as it has no real bearing on anything else except a few minor character decisions. Later on, another very dramatic statement is made by another character. It's the type of moment a TV series would use as a season cliffhanger, foreshadowing an escalation of the tension and an expansion of the scope of the plot. Instead, it’s barely mentioned again before the end of the book. These wasted plot points, among others, made me aware that the novel could have been about 2/3 as long. The main story, as it’s written, is a fine one, but by teasing world-geopolitical-altering events and then never delivering them, the reader might feel a bit let down, as I did.
Overall, the book is very strong science fiction. It’s certainly worth a read for anyone that enjoys plausible hard science fiction or climate fiction, and it will force you to consider uncomfortable questions about human nature, climate change, and how humans are a part of the environment. Especially for Americans, it should also make us think long and hard about what role we want to have in the future of the planet.